There is now a CRITICALLY HIGH risk of catching Covid-19 in Buckinghamshire, with 1 in every 23 people in the County already infected as of 29 June. The third wave of Covid this year is spreading frighteningly fast. Hospitalisations are rising quickly, with Covid patients in intensive care again. Everyone now needs to be really Covid-Careful.
The new variants of the Covid virus making up this third wave have evolved to avoid any immunity you may have from vaccination or having caught Covid-19 before. Even if you are fully vaccinated, or have had Covid-19 before, you are still vulnerable to catching it again. Every time you catch Covid-19 increases your chances of being very ill or developing Long Covid, so it is IMPORTANT to protect yourself now, even if you haven’t been Covid-Careful up until now.
Our advice is to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places, breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.
Things To Remember About This Third Wave
This new Covid-19 wave is made up of new Omicron variants, mainly BA.4 and BA.5. Here are some proven scientific facts about the next wave:
- MORE INFECTIOUS: The new variants are even more infectious than BA.1 and BA.2, so it will be even easier to catch them from other people.
- REINFECTIONS: Studies show that having been infected with Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 offers you only weak protection against catching BA.4 or BA.5. So, if you caught Covid at any point this year, you will almost certainly be able to catch it again during this new wave. Remember, each time you catch Covid, it does more damage to your body, and you are at a higher risk of death, severe illness or Long Covid. There is NO SUCH THING as ‘immunity’ or ‘herd immunity’ to Covid-19.
- VACCINE EVASIVE: The new variants, particularly BA.5, are much more able to avoid vaccine protection. Vaccines will still give you reasonably good protection against the most severe life-threatening Covid illness, but they will not give you strong protection against being very ill at home, and possibly having to miss work or education for long periods. This particularly applies to people whose vaccine protection hasn’t been recently boosted by another vaccine dose.
- LONG COVID RISK: The risk from Long Covid is as high as ever with the new variants. So many people – over 2 million in May – are now developing Long Covid that vital industries like transport, retail, education, and the NHS are struggling to find workers.
- NOT MILD: BA.4 and BA.5 are at least as dangerous as Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, which killed many tens of thousands of people and permanently disabled hundreds of thousands of people. BA.5 has been found in some studies to attack the lungs particularly severely. BuDS expects this summer BA.4 and BA.5 wave to decline in the autumn, as the virus runs out of people to infect. However, other even more infectious and vaccine-evasive new variants are already starting to show up in the scientific surveys, so there WILL be another autumn wave after this one, and a winter one to follow that too. This cycle of waves of infection (technically known as a pandemic) will keep on happening for years unless the Government takes action to slow down the spread of Covid-19 and better protect people through vaccination.
Get A Protective Mask!
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is one of the two best ways to protect yourself from Covid (the other is being fully vaccinated and boosted). One of BuDS’ partners, Cambridge Masks Co, are currently offering up to a 70% discount on high-quality, fully-certified reusable PPE face masks. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more and get the discounts.
The Risk In Bucks
BuDS uses the most up to date 5-day rolling average ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 29 June. This is of course 9 days ago, but it is the most reliable data available.
Using this data, we calculate that 1 in 23 people in Bucks had Covid, which is 23,753 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph below.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks remains CRITICALLY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?[1] – 43
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?[2] – 2,577
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?[3] – 5,153
- How many infected people in Amersham?[4] – 1,163
- How many infected people in Chesham?[5] – 1,147
- How many infected people in Buckingham?[6] – 644
- How many infected people in Burnham?[7] – 488
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?[8] – 64
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?[9] – 430
- How many infected people at a large public event?[10] – 859
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?[11] – 43
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?[12] – 13
How Is The NHS Coping?
The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals with Covid-19 rose again this week, by 6.9%. These figures are for 3 July, the latest available:
Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 325.
This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 6.9% higher than the previous week (304). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.
Total number of people admitted with Covid – 85
This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 13.3% higher than last week (75).
Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 130
This figure is 6.9% higher than last week (122).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 34
This figure is 6.9% higher than last week (30).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.
Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the number of deaths in Bucks is sadly remaining high. Notably, this week we again only have data for 13 days, rather than the 14 we usually use, so the figures below are likely to be lower than the true values.
There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.
- 5 July, 7 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,336. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
- Between 21 June and 5 July, 9 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,687. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
- Between 10 June and 24 June, 4 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,497. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.
Deaths from Covid in Bucks continue at the rate of one to two every DAY. At least one person has died of Covid in Bucks every single day in the last twenty-seven weeks.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the tenth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Less than 2,100 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 5 July, despite the addition of the fourth ‘Spring’ dose to the data.
Effectively, vaccination has ground to a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 5 July:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 586 children of the nearly 52,000 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (1.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Less than 6,600 young children have had one dose (12.9%). Nearly 9 out of 10 87.1%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 236 children of the nearly 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (0.8%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 14,400 secondary-age children have had two doses (47.0%), and less than 20,000 secondary-age children have had one dose (63.5%). Over a third (36.5%) of secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,905 of the over 14,000 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (20.3%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,000 older teenagers have had two doses (64.0%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (76.4 Nearly a quarter (23.6%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 261,180 of the nearly 380,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (68.8%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.9%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (86.2%). Nearly a quarter (13.8%) of adults remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – Only 43,600 of the nearly 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had four doses of a vaccine (54.9%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 75,000 older adults have had three doses (94.1%), just over 77,000 older adults have had two doses (96.3%), and just over 77,000 have had one dose (96.8%). More than 2,500 (3.2%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 10 May 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking.
Offers & More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To find out more about the discounts for certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/
How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
References
[1] Population of approx. 543973 based on 2018 survey data, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time