Covid infection levels in England continue to rise as the summer lull comes to an end. We have significantly upgraded our advice about the precautions that are appropriate in different places in response to this.
That said, infection levels remain historically lower, with 1 in every 1338 people in England now infected as of 9 August. The BuDS Covid infection risk level remains Moderately Low and other respiratory viruses remain at low levels. It is sensible and proportionate to take more precautions in some places now, but there is no need for alarm.
Late Data
Probably due to the holiday season, the NHS data we use as the basis of our risk assessments has been delayed in publication. This warning covers the period to 9 August, more than a week ago. We expect more up to date data shortly and we issue another assessment then. However, we do not anticipate more than another gradual increase in Covid risk in the last week.
Covid Precautions Now Recommended in More Places
While Covid levels are sliding upward, this is not the beginning of a major Covid wave driven by a new variant, like those we saw from 2020-2024. Levels are simply creeping higher as population immunity to new infections wanes and people start mixing more indoors as the summer ends. This is what happened in 2025 too.
However, because Covid levels in England today are likely to be higher than shown in the latest data, which more than a week old, we are now recommending precautions for everyone in Highest and High-Risk places. Highest Risk places include hospitals & other medical buildings, on public transport, and in very large indoor stadiums or theatres. High risk places include large schools, universities and colleges (when in use), cinemas, theatres, indoor performing arts venues, and large indoor shopping centres. We are also recommending that Covid-cautious people resume full precautions in Medium-High risk places, such as large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, local indoor shopping centres, and large office buildings.
In all other places, you are still statistically unlikely to encounter a person with Covid on a single visit, and we therefore feel that most people may consider that a lower level of precautions is appropriate.
Obviously, if you work or regularly visit a highest, high-risk or medium-risk indoor place, your risk of encountering a person with Covid is much higher, and you should take precautions accordingly. Remember also that high traffic places, like public transport and hospitals, are more likely to have residual virus in the air from infected people passing through, which is why we continue to advise precautions in these areas.
Remember, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you.
The table below gives full information and explains what we mean by highest, high, medium-high, medium, and lower-risk indoor places.
Autumn & Winter Covid Prediction For England
If – big if – 2026 continues to follow the pattern of 2025, then the seasonal wave of Covid in England could be the smallest on record. Last year saw an autumn wave of Covid from late summer to October/November, during which Covid infection levels roughly tripled at the peak from the background level over the summer. We are now seeing a similar rise in infection levels to that we saw at the same point in 2025. If 2026 continues to follow 2025, then we could see Covid infection levels rising to around 1 in 500 in October/November, or Moderately High. That compares to the peak last October of 1 in 100, or Very High.
This is an extremely tentative prediction at this stage. While there are no new variants obviously poised to cause a big Covid wave in England, community immunity to the virus shifts all the time and it is not possible to make any fully reliable predictions. We will continue to update you as soon as we can.
Flu Boosters Now Bookable
Although NHS flu vaccine boosters will not be available until October, you can start booking them online now. NHS flu vaccine boosters are available to people aged 65 or over (including people who will be 65 by 31 March 2027), have long-term health conditions, are pregnant, live in a care home, are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive a carer’s allowance, live with someone who has a weakened immune system, or are experiencing homelessness. Frontline health and social care workers can also get a flu vaccine through their employer.
BuDS strongly recommends that all eligible people get their winter flu booster. The booster upgrades your immune response to the flu variants in circulation this winter and helps prevent severe illness or death from influenza. If you are not eligible for the NHS flu booster, BuDS strongly recommends that you consider a private vaccination from a pharmacy.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Even if you are relaxing some precautions because Covid infection levels are currently low, you may wish to still use other precautions. For example, you may decide not to mask in a café, but to still sit near an open window or to use a HEPA filter.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| Highest | Hospitals & other medical buildings, on buses and trains and other public transport, and in very large indoor stadiums or theatres. | Used by very large numbers of people who are not taking precautions, and/or used by sick people who are much more likely to have Covid. Often poorly ventilated spaces. | You are statistically likely to encounter more than one infected person every time you visit. When you visit, statistically there are likely to be 2 to 4 infected people. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these highest-risk places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| High | Schools, universities and colleges, large cinemas & theatres, large indoor performing arts venues, large indoor shopping centres | Used by large numbers of people who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically likely to encounter at least one infected person every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these high-risk places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, local indoor shopping centres, large office buildings | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | After 1-2 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over both visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Covid-cautious people using these spaces should wear a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Medium | Medium-sized pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants (100-200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 2 to 5 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Most people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these spaces in view of the low infection risk. However, highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces may wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Lower | Small pubs, bars & cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 27 to 54 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Most people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these spaces in view of the very low infection risk. However, highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces may wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
More Information
This is BuDS’ 284th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.