More Covid good news, as infection levels in England continue to fall. The risk level is still Moderate, with 1 in every 735 people in England infected.
This week’s NOIDS data was collected over the first Easter holiday weekend, and may be revised next week. For this reason, we are only tentatively reporting a 1 in 735 incidence. However, even if this incidence is later slightly increased, it is certain that, overall, infection levels in England have remained at their lowest level since 2021.
In other good news, other respiratory viruses are now back at baseline levels. The risk from respiratory viruses, including Covid, in the community remains at its lowest ever level.
What Does This Mean For Me?
Most people are still able to consider relaxing precautions against catching Covid in all but high risk indoor places. The science is clear that infection levels are currently very low. People who are very Covid-cautious may well feel that they wish to maintain precautions in medium-high risk places. We give very detailed guidance on this in the table below.
Covid Spring Boosters Now Bookable
From 13 April, the NHS is offering Covid vaccine boosters to everyone aged 75 or over, all aged-care home residents, and a small group of acutely clinically vulnerable people. If you are eligible for a booster, you can book it now online, through the NHS app, or through your local GP surgery. Carers and family of these people are not eligible, and neither are healthcare and care staff.
BuDS very strongly recommends that everyone eligible for a booster takes up the offer. If you are not eligible for the Covid vaccine booster on the NHS, BuDS recommends that you consider a private vaccination. These are available at many pharmacies across England, including supermarket pharmacies and local high street outlets. Based on previous vaccination rounds, the cost is likely to be around £100 per person.
Everyone Needs Vaccination!
The Government thinks mainly about the acute or immediate symptoms of Covid when people catch it. Thanks to vaccination (and having had Covid before), most people are not severely ill when they first catch Covid. The Government therefore treats Covid as if it was another type of flu – not really dangerous, except to a small group of people. This is why vaccine boosters are only offered to acutely clinically vulnerable people.
However, this attitude is scientifically completely wrong. Covid is a virus which is now medically proven to cause a wide range of serious conditions in the weeks and months after people have apparently recovered from their first symptoms. These conditions include blood clots (which can cause heart attacks and strokes), organ damage, damaged hearing and sight, and brain damage. It is becoming increasingly clear that vaccination reduces the risk of people developing these serious conditions.
BuDS condemns the Government’s unscientific and non-evidence led approach to Covid vaccination. We call on the Government to widen Covid boosters to everyone who is eligible for a flu booster. We also call on the Government to carry out a new Covid risk assessment to find out whether offering Covid boosters to everyone is in the national interest.
Don’t Let Your Covid Guard Down.
Covid infection levels in England are currently historically very low, but this still means that around 76,000 people had Covid in England last week. Especially if you are acutely clinically vulnerable, catching Covid is a risk you do not want to take. The Covid vaccine booster will literally ‘boost’ your immune defences against Covid, helping you avoid serious illness or hospitalisation if you catch the virus, and also reducing the risk of a serious post-Covid condition.
Risk Analysis
Given the very low level of Covid and other respiratory viruses, and in accordance with the precautionary principle, we now recommend that precautions against respiratory viruses should be taken by everyone in high risk indoor places only.
The risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) in high risk indoor areas include wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors, improving fresh air ventilation, using a HEPA filter, and avoiding higher-risk areas.
In lower, medium, and medium-high risk indoor places, people who are not highly Covid-cautious should consider whether precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
Highly Covid-Cautious
We are using the phrase ‘highly Covid-cautious’ to mean people who do not wish to take even low risks of catching Covid. This may reflect their personal medical status (e.g. immunocompromised or acutely clinically vulnerable), or it may simply be that, regardless of their health status, they recognise the wider risks of Covid infection and do not wish to run those risks. BuDS warns only about infection risk (how likely you are to catch Covid in the community) and not about illness risk, i.e. the personal health consequences for you if you catch Covid.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people who are not taking precautions. Typically, poorly ventilated spaces. Journeys typically involve several stages and venues, widening infection risk | Minimum 1, potentially 7+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places, in view of the high infection risk. |
| Medium-high | Large bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 2+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized bars, clubs, and restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Potentially 1 | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 15 to 29 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions in view of the lower infection risk. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus (and sometimes infected water droplets) which hangs in the air for you to breathe in. The virus and/or droplet cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 266th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.