The current wave of Covid in England is plateauing, but the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life remains High. Covid infection levels in England have fallen to around 1 in 129 people in England infected as of 3 November. We are still predicting a Christmas and New Year infection peak, as we have seen in every year since 2020.
This is BuDS’ 200th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. Our first risk assessment was issued on 6 July 2020, and we have released one nearly every week ever since. A minimum of 10,000 people use our information every week, and we often reach well over 100,000 people. We’ve never received any specific funding for any of this work, and it has all been carried out by a very small and very dedicated volunteer team. To safeguard our work for the future, we are raising funds to continue and develop our Covid information project for 2025 and beyond. If you are able to contribute, please visit https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-info.
As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will likely have around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 1 infected people breathing out virus. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 4 infected people. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
We urge everyone who is entitled to a free Covid vaccination to get it immediately. If you are not entitled to a free vaccination, please consider whether paying for the jab would be a good investment (if you can afford it, of course). Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 3 November. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 129 people in England with Covid as of 3 November is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.