Covid infection levels in England continue to rise very steeply, up 23% in the last week. While the overall risk remains High, we are anticipating that it will be raised to Very High next week. If you do not wish to catch Covid, please take precautions now. Please also get your Covid booster if you are eligible, or consider whether you can afford to get one privately.
As of 28 September, around 1 in every 123 people in England were infected, and the risk of encountering an infected person in most indoor places is now High. Unless the indoor air is fresh, or filtered/purified, good quality PPE respiratory masks are needed to protect yourself. If you need any advice about this, please do ask.
Winter Flu Wave Still Not Here
Although we can start to see the beginning of the winter influenza wave, levels of the influenza virus in England are extremely small at present. If you, or someone around you, have symptoms of a respiratory virus such as fever, coughing, sore throat, headache, exhaustion, etc, it is very much more likely that these are symptoms of Covid. If you do have flu-like symptoms, please test several times for Covid – tests are available at all high street chemists for about £2 each. If the test is positive, do notify your GP surgery. If you are one of the unlucky fifth of people who develop a post-Covid condition, knowing that you had a positive Covid test could be very important for your future health treatment.
Obviously, if you or someone you have met does have symptoms of Covid/a respiratory virus, please do the decent, patriotic thing and keep it to yourself. Unless you are absolutely unable to do so, please isolate until your symptoms have been gone for a couple of days. If you can’t isolate, wear a tight-fitting PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/FFP3) whenever you are in contact with other people.
Covid Damages The Heart
This week, we are highlighting the risks of Covid to your heart and circulatory system. It is now medically proven that Covid significantly increases the risk of blood clots, and the virus itself can cause inflammation of heart tissue and your veins & arteries. If you have an existing heart condition such as coronary heart disease, heart failure, or heart enlargement, catching Covid could be extremely dangerous for you. Please talk to your own doctor to get medical advice – remember, that while we can give you accurate information, we are not doctors and cannot give you personal medical advice.
Risk Analysis
Now that Covid infection levels have dramatically increased, BuDS is now strongly recommending that everyone takes precautions against catching Covid. These precautions should be taken in all indoor places, unless you are sure that the space is very well ventilated or has HEPA filtration in place. We continue to not recommend Covid precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 8, potentially 41+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 6, potentially 12+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 2, potentially 5+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person on a single visit, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 2 to 5 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. Remember, however, especially with rising infection levels, you may well be unlucky and meet a Covid-infected person on your first visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). The Covid risk is rising. While statistically the risk remains lower, we encourage a cautious approach to taking risks. Not wearing a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) should be exceptional when the risk is clearly lower, for example in a nearly empty building. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
Covid is not just dangerous for clinically-vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 244th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.