The Summer Wave of Covid continues, with infection levels remaining HIGH. Using the latest available data, we estimate that around 1 in 136 people in England are infected with Covid as of 19 May. See below for more on how we calculated this.
At the moment, there is a mismatch between the available data about Covid levels and people’s reported experience of Covid (anecdotal data). While the data suggests a High level (between 1 in 100 and 1 in 200 infected people), the anecdotal data suggests a Very High level (between 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 infected people). One mathematical model suggests that infection levels could be Extremely High (1 in 25 to 1 in 50 infected people). Our advice to disabled and clinically vulnerable people is to assume that Covid levels may be higher than the data suggests. Taking precautions as if the risk was higher will protect you, even if the risk happens to be lower.
The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains HIGH, and is moving toward Very High. As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 2 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In these circumstances, unless you wear a respiratory filter mask, you have a high risk of catching Covid. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) report dated 19 May, plus UKHSA and NHS data about cases and hospitalisations. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 136 people in England with Covid as of 19 May is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
This latest Covid wave is being driven by new sub-variants of the virus, coupled with the weakening of people’s temporary acquired immunity from earlier this year. This combination of reduced acquired immunity and new variants means that EVERYONE, even people who have caught Covid recently, will probably catch it again this summer unless they take precautions. Remember, vaccination reduces the risk of very severe disease, it does not stop you from catching Covid and being very ill at home.
For the future, we are not expecting a significant decline in Covid infection levels over the next few weeks. Ironically, the Prime Minister has called a General Election in the middle of a Covid wave, while also claiming that his Government effectively dealt with Covid. Although people tend to be outdoors more in the summer, which reduces Covid transmission, school, college, and university exams in unventilated exam halls will provide a perfect superspreader environment for the virus. Those students will then take the virus home to their families and into workplaces. We may well see a ‘second peak’ in the next few weeks.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.