The welcome fall in Covid infection levels in England continues. However, around 1 in every 180 people in England were still infected as of 2 November, so the risk level remains HIGH. It is too early to think of relaxing precautions, particularly as this is only an average for the whole nation and infection levels could easily be higher in your area.
Influenza (flu) continues to be a huge problem in England, with infection levels rising 38% in the last week of data (to 2 November). Remember, while influenza is not as infectious or dangerous as Covid, it is still a nasty virus to catch, and can have long-term health impacts too. The influenza vaccine is much more widely available than the Covid vaccine, and we recommend everyone entitled to a flu vaccine gets one as quickly as possible.
Tripledemic Ending
Although flu levels are still going up rapidly, Covid and the common cold (rhinovirus) are now falling. It remains to be seen how seriously the NHS is being affected, as data about this will not be available for some weeks. We continue to advise avoiding NHS and healthcare buildings as much as possible, and using a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/FFP3) when visiting.
Infection Etiquette
If you or someone you have met does have symptoms of Covid (or of a respiratory virus which might be Covid), please do the decent, patriotic, thing and keep it to yourself. Unless you are unable to do so, please isolate until your symptoms have been gone for a couple of days. If you can’t isolate, wear a tight-fitting non-valved PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/FFP3) whenever you are in contact with other people indoors. You can buy these masks at pharmacies or online. They both protect you against viruses in the air and protect others if you are infected. We recommend everyone stocks up on them now.
If you have a condition which makes you extremely clinically vulnerable to Covid, you are entitled to free NHS lateral flow test kits and, if you test positive, you may be eligible for antiviral treatments to help you survive the infection. More information is available on the NHS website.
Risk Analysis
BuDS strongly recommends that everyone takes precautions against catching Covid. These precautions should be taken in all indoor places, unless you are sure that the space is very well ventilated or has HEPA filtration in place. We continue to not recommend Covid precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 6, potentially 28+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 4, potentially 8+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 2, potentially 3+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person on a single visit, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 4 to 7 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. Remember, however, especially with rising infection levels, you may well be unlucky and meet a Covid-infected person on your first visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). While statistically the risk remains lower, we encourage a cautious approach to taking risks. Not wearing a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) should be exceptional when the risk is clearly lower, for example in a nearly empty building. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
Covid is not just dangerous for clinically vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 249th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
We have decided to mark our 250th Covid risk assessment next week by relaunching our appeal for funding for our Covid Information, Advice, and Guidance (IAG) project. Watch out for more news next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.