Some good news: Covid infection levels in England have stabilised at historically lower levels, but are slowly edging up. Reported influenza (flu) levels continue to fall fast and, though flu is currently still at higher levels, the winter wave seen in December is now coming to an end.
Covid Historically Lower But Slowly Edging Up
After seasonal data confusion, the picture is now clear. The good news is that currently 1 in every 446 people in England are infected, which is historically lower, presenting a Moderate risk. This is amongst the lowest risk level seen during the whole pandemic. As clinically-vulnerable people ourselves, we are reasonably confident that this is a robust risk assessment and not wrongly influenced by data issues or testing policies.
The B.A.3.2. (or ‘Cicada’) variant is slowly starting to spread in the UK, making headway against significant community immunity levels from the autumn wave of Covid and the winter vaccine booster programme. Unless a new variant comes along, we therefore expect Covid infection levels to continue to slowly increase. We will continue to report on this weekly.
Flu Wave Over, But Levels Still Elevated
Reported influenza (flu) levels have fallen rapidly over the last week, continuing the steep fall that began in mid-December. The winter flu wave is definitely declining fast, although a second wave cannot be ruled out. Flu levels currently remain objectively elevated, however, and precautions against catching flu remain necessary in higher-risk indoor places.
Risk Analysis
In accordance with the precautionary principle, we continue to recommend that precautions should be taken in all high and medium-high indoor places. In lower and medium risk indoor places, most people (who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid and/or flu) should consider whether precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people. Check out the table on our website or Substack for full details.
The risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) in higher risk areas include wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors, improving fresh air ventilation, using a HEPA filter, and avoiding higher-risk areas.
Detailed Covid Risk Analysis
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 2, potentially 11+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 2, potentially 3+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 1+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions, especially if risk can be mitigated through ventilation or HEPA filtration. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 9 to 18 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid or flu from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 257th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.