A Covid wave is starting in England. The data is now unmistakable: as of 13 September, 1 in every 378 people were infected, up 78% on the previous week. The BuDS overall Covid risk level has been raised to Moderately High.
There are also signs that influenza (flu) levels are starting to rapidly increase.
Analysis
We very tentatively anticipate that Covid infection levels will continue to rapidly increase over the next few weeks. The peak may be in mid-October. If 2026 follows the pattern of 2025, we will then see a rapid decline in Covid infection levels with lower levels returning in mid to late-November.
While the risk from Covid is now rapidly increasing, it is doing so from a much lower base than we saw in 2025. While it is impossible to be sure, this may mean that Covid infection levels at the peak of the current wave will be lower than they were in 2025. In practical terms, this means that small indoor spaces used by limited numbers of people may remain safer than they were in 2025.
Equally tentatively, we anticipate a flu wave over the next few months, peaking possibly in mid-December. There is no reason to expect a smaller wave than we saw in 2025, which was one of the NHS’ worst ever flu seasons.
Higher Risk
We have raised the BuDS Covid risk level from Moderate to Moderately High. We now recommend full precautions, including a PPE mask, in all but Medium-Low and Lower risk indoor places. Medium-Low risk indoor places are those used by less than 200 people at any one time. Lower risk places are those used by less than 50 people at any one time. We expect to start recommending full precautions in Medium-Low risk indoor places in the next fortnight, if the current rate of increase in Covid levels continues.
BuDS Has Your Back
Our aim is to help Covid-Cautious people continue to engage safely in society as England moves through this seasonal wave of Covid. Obviously, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you.
Remember, if you work at or regularly visit a higher-risk indoor place, your risk of encountering a person with Covid is much higher, and you should take precautions accordingly. Also, if you visit a number of smaller indoor places on a single day, your risk of meeting an infected person should be estimated by looking at the occupancy of all those places. Several small indoor places may offer the same number of indoor encounters as one medium or medium-high place, for example.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid. A CO2 monitor will help you understand how fresh or recirculated indoor air is – the lower the CO2, the better.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Even if you are relaxing some precautions because Covid infection levels are currently low, you may wish to still use other precautions. For example, you may decide not to mask in a café, but to still sit near an open window or to use a HEPA filter.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| Highest | Hospitals & other healthcare buildings. Education settings such as schools and colleges. Public transport including buses and trains and the London Underground. Very large indoor stadiums or theatres. | Used by people who are much more likely to have Covid. Used by very large numbers of people. | In healthcare and education settings, the risk of encountering a Covid-infected person is high, even if there are not large numbers of users. In very large indoor spaces, you are statistically likely to encounter 8 to 13 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| High | Large cinemas & theatres. Large indoor performing arts venues. Large indoor shopping centres | Used by large numbers of people. | You are statistically likely to encounter 3 to 8 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-High | Larger bars and clubs, Larger supermarkets. Local indoor shopping centres. Large office buildings. | Used by large numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 2 to 4 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants Average sized supermarkets. Smaller offices. Individual larger shops Large indoor heritage or tourism destinations. | Used by medium numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 1 or 2 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-Low | Smaller cinemas, theatres, & performing arts venues. Smaller hotels. Larger individual restaurants. Smaller supermarkets. town Most heritage destinations, eg museums, galleries etc | Used by lower numbers of people. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits (although this risk cannot be excluded). After 2 to 4 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). CAUTION: Covid-cautious people using these spaces may wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. Others may feel it is still safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these spaces in view of the lower statistical infection risk. |
| Lower | Small pubs, bars & cafes. Small individual shops. Infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services). Buildings which, at the time of visit, have few people inside them. | Used by small numbers of people. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits (although this risk cannot be excluded). After 8 to 15 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). SAFER: Most people may feel it is still safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these spaces in view of the very low infection risk. However, highly Covid-cautious people using these spaces may wish to maintain use of a PPE respiratory mask. |
| Lowest | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | SAFEST: No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
More Information
This is BuDS’ 289th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/. (The paid and free subscriptions are exactly the same, but choosing a paid one gives us a small, regular donation to support our work.)
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.