Articles in Risk Assessments

Covid infection levels in England have slightly declined in the last week, and remain at historically lower levels. Around 1 in every 261 people in England were infected in the week to 29 June, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

There has not been a Covid wave in England since the beginning of 2025. This is unprecedented since the start of the pandemic. However, Covid has not gone away, and around 220,000 people have Covid every week. So far, no competitive new variant of Covid has emerged to drive a very large wave of infections, and there does not appear to be such a new variant on the immediate horizon. While Covid levels cannot be expected to remain at these historically lower levels forever, there is no sign yet of a significant new wave.

Covid infection levels are continuing to slowly rise but, for the moment, still remain at historically lower levels. Around 1 in every 239 people in England were infected in the week to 22 June, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

Once again, there is no evidence in any data that there is a current Covid wave in England. The long-term trend is of a very gradual increase in infection levels. If this trend continues, infection levels will reach the same level as last summer (when we were in the trough between two waves) by August. For the moment, therefore, we are leaving our risk advice unchanged.

There is still no sign yet of a Covid wave in England. Covid infection levels in England have remained static in the week to 8 June. Around 1 in every 262 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

You will have seen a lot of social media chat about new variant NB.1.8.1, nicknamed Nimbus, and also another variant called XFG. It is said that these new variants are driving another wave of Covid in England. However, as we say above, Covid infection levels in England have actually remained static.

Despite talk of a Covid wave, Covid infection levels in England remained at historically lower levels in the week to 1 June, although there has been a week-on-week rise. Around 1 in every 261 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 261 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.

There’s no sign yet of the threatened summer wave of Covid, as Covid infection levels in England remain at historically lower levels. Last week, to 25 May, rates slightly decreased. Around 1 in every 292 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 292 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.

Covid infection levels in England remain at historically lower levels, with no sign of more than minor week-on-week fluctuations. Last week, to 18 May, around 1 in every 283 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remained Moderately High.

As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 283 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.

The recent small rise in Covid infection levels in England has probably come to an end. Last week, to 11 May, Covid infection levels fell back to the historically lower level seen in late March. Around 1 in every 282 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High. The data which will help us confirm and understand this fall will not be published for a few weeks, but we will keep you updated as it becomes available.

Covid infection levels in England have resumed their slow increase. In the week to 4 May, around 1 in every 250 people in England were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

Covid infection levels in England have remained at historically lower levels since January 2025, the longest period of lower levels since the pandemic began. It is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 250 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas. This is explained fully below.

Covid infection levels in England remained static in the week to 27 April. Around 1 in every 254 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High. It is too early to see any impact of Easter holiday mixing in the data.

Covid infection levels in England have remained stable in the week to 20 April. The recent slow rise appears to have stopped, although this may be simply a reporting error. As of the week ending 20 April, around 1 in every 265 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk currently remains Moderately High.