The Covid wave in England is growing very fast, and the overall Covid risk level has been raised to High. As of 4 October, 1 in every 175 people were infected, up 34% on the previous week. We continue to recommend that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places.
Influenza (flu) levels in England are also starting to very rapidly increase and there is no doubt that the winter flu wave is starting.
Analysis
Covid infection levels in England are rising very steeply, and all the data is pointing in the same way. There is no sign yet of a slowing in the rate of infection or that we are nearing ‘the peak of the wave’. Tentatively, we are now predicting a wave of Covid not much smaller than that in 2025, when 1 in every 103 people were infected.
Mask Up!
The BuDS Covid risk level is now High. Accordingly, we now recommend that Covid-Cautious people take full precautions, including a PPE mask, in ALL indoor places.
‘American’ Covid?
Many media outlets are saying that the current Covid wave in England is connected to the recent Covid wave in the US. Some reports claim that the English wave is driven by the XFG (‘Stratus’) variant, crossing from America. None of these claims are accurate.
The current wave of Covid in England is not being driven by a new variant of Covid, from America or anywhere else. It is happening because two things have coincided. Firstly, Covid levels in England have been very low over the summer, so only relatively small number of people have temporary immunity against catching Covid again. Secondly, people are now meeting inside because the summer has ended. This puts people with weak immunity resistance to catching Covid in the perfect indoor environment to catch Covid. And, inevitably, people do catch Covid and the wave builds until most people have had Covid. Once most people have had Covid, they are temporarily unable to catch it again, so the wave quickly declines. This is what is happening in England right now, just as it happened last year.
We know that this current wave is not caused by the XFG or ‘Stratus’ variant arriving for the first time in the UK, as some media claim, because the XFG variant has been circulating in Europe and the UK since the beginning of 2025, two years ago. XFG has been the biggest single variant in the UK since around May 2026. It’s the ‘biggest ingredient in the Covid soup’, and it’s causing a lot of infections, but it is doing so because people’s immunity to all Covid variants has waned, not because XFG is a new variant.
SW.2 Incoming?
There is a new Covid variant in the US which is increasingly driving new infections. This is variant SW.2, a mutation of XFG. It was quickly replacing XFG as the dominant variant in the US as of the summer of this year, which is the latest CDC data available. However, accordingly to WHO and ECDC data, SW.2 has not appeared much in Europe or the UK yet, although it may do in the future.
SW.2 *may* cause a wave of Covid in the UK if it establishes itself as a dominant variant here. This is a big if, because population immunity is different in every country, and so it isn’t guaranteed that what happens in the US will happen in the UK. If SW.2 does establish itself, we might see a ‘second peak’ in February or March, or the current wave may be prolonged if SW.2 joins in and ‘fuels the fire’. Or, of course, SW.2 may become just another variant in the UK ‘soup’ without driving a wave as such.
BuDS Has Your Back
Our aim is to help Covid-Cautious people continue to engage safely in society while Covid levels are high. Obviously, these are only our recommendations, and everyone is free to choose the level of Covid precaution that feels right for them. We only advise on infection risk (how likely it is that you will meet someone with Covid), not on how serious a Covid infection might be for you.
Managing Your Risk
Covid is an airborne virus. This means that it mainly spreads in the air that you breathe.
Things you can do to protect yourself against Covid infection include:
- Wearing a PPE respiratory mask indoors. Worn correctly, respiratory masks (rated FFP2/FFP3 or N95/99) filter airborne viruses out of the air that you breathe.
- Improving fresh air ventilation. Fresh air, especially moving fresh air, very effectively dilutes and breaks up the clouds of Covid virus in the air, making it less likely that you will inhale enough virus to catch Covid. A CO2 monitor will help you understand how fresh or recirculated indoor air is – the lower the CO2, the better.
- Using a HEPA filter. HEPA filters suck in the air, filter out viruses like Covid (and other particles), and blow out clean air. HEPA filters are very useful in cleaning the air in rooms with poor fresh air ventilation.
- Avoiding higher-risk areas. If you don’t go to areas where there is likely to be a lot of virus, you won’t catch it.
- Enjoy the outdoors. It is extremely difficult to catch Covid outside, because the fresh moving air immediately disrupts and dilutes the Covid virus which other people may breathe out. As long as you are not in a dense crowd of people who are breathing directly into your face, you do not need to take precautions against catching Covid outdoors.
Detailed Covid Infection Risk Analysis
| Infection Risk | Places | Infection Risk factors | Likely number of Covid infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest | Hospitals & other healthcare buildings. Education settings such as schools and colleges. Public transport including buses and trains and the London Underground. Very large indoor stadiums or theatres. | Used by people who are much more likely to have Covid. Used by very large numbers of people. | In healthcare and education settings, the risk of encountering a Covid-infected person is high, even if there are not large numbers of users. In very large indoor spaces, you are statistically likely to encounter 17 to 29 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| High | Large cinemas & theatres. Large indoor performing arts venues. Large indoor shopping centres | Used by large numbers of people. | You are statistically likely to encounter 6 to 17 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We strongly recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-High | Larger bars and clubs, Larger supermarkets. Local indoor shopping centres. Large office buildings. | Used by large numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 4 to 9 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium | Medium-sized pubs, bars, clubs, and restaurants Average sized supermarkets. Smaller offices. Individual larger shops Large indoor heritage or tourism destinations. | Used by medium numbers of people | You are statistically likely to encounter 2 to 4 infected people every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Medium-Low | Smaller cinemas, theatres, & performing arts venues. Smaller hotels. Larger individual restaurants. Smaller supermarkets. town Most heritage destinations, eg museums, galleries etc | Used by lower numbers of people. | You are statistically likely to encounter 1 infected person every time you visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). DANGER: We recommend that everyone wears a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit to these places in view of the higher infection risk. |
| Lower | Small pubs, bars & cafes. Small individual shops. Infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services). Buildings which, at the time of visit, have few people inside them. | Used by small numbers of people. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits (although this risk cannot be excluded). After 4 to 7 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). CAUTION: Covid-cautious people using these spaces will wish to use a PPE respiratory mask. Some people may feel it is still safe enough for them to remain unmasked in these small spaces However, remember that Covid may hang in the air in unventilated indoor places and cause an infection even if there is only a few, or even nobody, present. |
| Lowest | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | SAFEST: No precautions needed but avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
More Information
This is BuDS’ 292nd Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. BuDS is the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and Covid-cautious people in England. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/. (The paid and free subscriptions are exactly the same, but choosing a paid one gives us a small, regular donation to support our work.)
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
BuDS is not funded by grants to publish these weekly reports. To make a donation to help us continue these risk assessments, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.