The Covid risk in Buckinghamshire has continued to decline over the last week. However, there is still a VERY HIGH risk of meeting an infected person at work, at the shops or when out and about. People still need to stay Covid-Careful, because Covid-19 has NOT gone away. We predict that around 1 in 83 people in Bucks are still infected with Covid-19.
Covid isn’t going away and there is just as much virus around as there has ever been. What is happening now is that so many people have recently had Covid that the virus is running out of new people to infect. So numbers of infected people are falling quickly, like a fire running out of fuel. But that situation can’t last long, as we explain below.
Please don’t feel safe because you have had Covid before or are fully vaccinated, or because numbers are currently going down.
Our advice remains to wear a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places, breathe clean air, avoid crowds and busy places, work from home if you can, and protect your older and vulnerable relatives and friends. These simple precautions will help save you and your family from serious illness or long-term disability.
The Winter Wave
We said above that Covid at the moment has run out of people to infect, like a fire running out of fuel. But this situation won’t last. To understand why, you first need to understand what keeps infections down.
There are three main things that keep infections down.
- The first thing is vaccinations. If you are vaccinated, you are less likely to catch Covid-19. However, the effect of Covid vaccinations and boosters wears off over a few months, so pretty much everybody now has no vaccine defence against catching Covid. The vaccine still helps protect against the most serious Covid illness and dying from Covid, so it’s still essential to be vaccinated, but most people now have no vaccine defence against catching Covid and being ill at home with Covid.
- The second thing is having had Covid before, or ‘prior infection’. If you’ve had Covid, you are much less likely to catch it again for a few weeks afterward. The millions of people who have caught Covid recently, are potentially protected from catching Covid again – but only for the next few weeks.
- The third thing that can stop the number of people with Covid going up is taking precautions against Covid, like social distancing, better ventilation and air quality, wearing masks and changing the way people work and behave. Boris Johnston’s Government has said it will not make any of these precautions mandatory and few people are taking precautions. So we can ignore this factor unless the public or Government changes its mind.
The things that will change over the next few weeks are that millions of people who caught Covid earlier in 2022 will start to become vulnerable to catching Covid AGAIN, as their prior immunity wears off, just at the time of year when people spend much more time indoors because the weather is colder and wetter. So the Covid virus will have millions of people to infect again, and the perfect conditions to spread from person to person. A massive new autumn and winter wave of Covid WILL happen, just as the NHS has been predicting. This winter wave will happen even if we do not see a new Covid-19 variant, because people will become vulnerable again to existing variants, when their protection wears off. A new variant which can get around vaccine or prior immunity will just make things worse.
The NHS is now rolling out an Autumn Booster for Covid to try to refresh people’s immunity against catching Covid and getting seriously ill with Covid. This is to try and reduce the size of the winter wave, to give the NHS a chance of coping with it.
The Winter Wave of Covid is definitely on the way. The only question is how large it will be, and whether it will overwhelm the already weakened NHS. You need to decide whether you want to be a victim of the Wave or not.
Get Boosted – Get A Protective Mask!
If you are eligible for the NHS autumn booster, make sure you take it. If you or your children haven’t yet had all your other Covid vaccinations, get them done now. Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death, serious illness, or long-term disability.
Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.
The Risk In Bucks
BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 23 August. This is of course 9 days ago, but it is the most reliable data available.
Using this data, we estimate that 1 in 83 people in Bucks had Covid, which is 6,628 people.
You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.
How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?
Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is VERY HIGH.
If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.
- How many infected people in every 1000?[1] – 12
- How many infected people in Aylesbury?[2] – 719
- How many infected people in High Wycombe?[3] – 1,438
- How many infected people in Amersham?[4] – 325
- How many infected people in Chesham?[5] – 320
- How many infected people in Buckingham?[6] – 180
- How many infected people in Burnham?[7] – 136
- How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?[8] – 18
- How many infected people in a busy town centre?[9] – 120
- How many infected people at a large public event?[10] – 240
- How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?[11] – 12
- How many infected people in a busy supermarket?[12] – 4
How Is The NHS Coping?
The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals with Covid-19 fell this week, by 3.2%.
These figures are for 28 August, the latest available:
Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 180.
This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 3.2% lower than the previous week (186). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.
Total number of people admitted with Covid – 42
This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 17.6% lower than last week (51).
Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 72
This figure is 3.2% lower than last week (74).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 17
This figure is 17.6% lower than last week (20).
As of May 5, the NHS estimate that around 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.
You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed in 2022 on the graphs below.
Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.
Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks
We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. Over all three counting measures, the number of deaths in Bucks is thankfully falling, though still high.
There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.
- 29 August, 2 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,398. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
- Between 15 August and 29 August, 7 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,771. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
- Between 5 August and 19 August, 9 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,540. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.
For the first time in 34 weeks, someone has not died of Covid-19 every day in Bucks. This is a significant milestone, but should not be taken out of context. People are still getting ill and dying from Covid-19, and this is a tragedy no matter how many or few they are.
How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?
For the eighteenth week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Less than 660 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 30 August, despite the continued addition of the fourth ‘Spring’ dose to the data. This is significantly fewer doses than were delivered at the time of our report last week, and still far lower than is medically necessary for good protection in the community.
Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.
Here are the latest vaccination figures for 30 August:
- Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 3,589 children of the over 51,000 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (7.0%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. 3 people have had 3 doses, and 7,390 young children have had one dose (14.4%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (85.6%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
- Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 299 children of the nearly 31,000 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.0%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 15,200 secondary-age children have had two doses (49.5%), and less than 20,000 secondary-age children have had one dose (62.5%). Over a third (37.5%) of secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,998 of the over 14,000 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (21.0%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,200 older teenagers have had two doses (64.5%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (75.8%). Nearly a quarter (24.2%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 262,698 of the over 380,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (69.1%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Under 320,000 adults have had two doses (83.9%), and less than 330,000 adults have had one dose (86.1%). Over a tenth (13.9%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
- Older Adults (aged over 70) – Only 44,682 of the over 80,000 older adults in Bucks have had four doses of a vaccine (55.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 75,500 older adults have had three doses (94.1%), just over 77,000 older adults have had two doses (96.3%), and just under 78,000 have had one dose (96.8%). More than 2,500 (3.2%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Remember, those who received their third booster jab before 5 July 2022 are, week by week, becoming less protected against Omicron. While their protection against being severely ill and being admitted to hospital is still reasonably good, their resistance to catching Omicron and being seriously ill at home is shrinking. The fourth ‘autumn booster’ is essential to upgrade and refresh people’s protection.
More Information
If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.
To find out more certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/
How we calculate our figures and how we check them for accuracy – https://buds.org.uk/risk-post-statistical-methods-explanation/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.
[1] Population of approx. 543973 based on 2018 survey data, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
[2] Population of approx. 60,000 people, from https://www.aylesburytowncouncil.gov.uk/about-aylesbury/#:~:text=Aylesbury%2C%20the%20County%20Town%20of%20Buckinghamshire%2C%20is%20a,of%20over%2060%2C000%2C%20the%20largest%20in%20Aylesbury%20Vale.
[3] Population of approx. 120,000 people, from https://www.wycombe.gov.uk/pages/About-the-council/Transparency-and-open-government/Open-data/Statistics-and-census-information.aspx
[4] Population of 27,077 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[5] Population of 26,718 as of the 2011 Census, from http://old.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1000352/Local-Community-Area-Data.xls
[6] Population of approx. 15,000 people, from https://www.buckingham-tc.gov.uk/
[7] Population of approx. 11360 as of the 2011 census, from https://wikishire.co.uk/wiki/Burnham,_Buckinghamshire#cite_note-ons-1
[8] Assuming pupils plus staff equals 1500 people in total
[9] Assuming 10,000 people present at any one time
[10] Assuming 20,000 people present at any one time
[11] Assuming 1000 people present at any one time
[12] Assuming 300 people present at any one time