A huge winter wave of Covid-19 is coming, and we want to warn everyone now to get ready for it.
The Government and media are reporting that the number of people with Covid is falling rapidly, and that is true. But Covid isn’t going away and there is just as much virus around as there has ever been. What is happening now is that so many people have recently had Covid that the virus is running out of new people to infect. So, numbers of infected people are falling quickly, like a fire running out of fuel. But that situation can’t last long, because fresh fuel is on the way.
To understand why this is happening, you first need to understand what keeps Covid infections down.
What Keeps Covid-19 Infections Down?
There are three main things that keep infections down.
- VACCINATIONS: The first thing is vaccinations. If you are vaccinated, you are less likely to catch Covid-19. However, the effect of Covid vaccinations and boosters wears off over a few months, so pretty much everybody now has no vaccine defence against catching Covid. The vaccine still helps protect against the most serious Covid illness and dying from Covid, so it’s still essential to be vaccinated, but most people now have no vaccine defence against catching Covid and being ill at home with Covid.
- PRIOR INFECTION: The second thing that can stop the number of people with Covid going up is lots of people recently having had Covid before, or ‘prior infection’. If you’ve had Covid, you are much less likely to catch it again for a few weeks afterward. The millions of people who have caught Covid recently are protected from catching Covid again – but only for the next few weeks.
- PRECAUTIONS: The third thing that can stop the number of people with Covid going up is taking precautions against Covid, like social distancing, better ventilation and air quality, wearing masks and changing the way people work and behave. This Government has said it will not make any of these precautions mandatory and few people are taking precautions. So, we can ignore this factor unless the public or Government changes its mind.
Over the next few weeks, millions of people who caught Covid earlier in 2022 will start to become vulnerable to catching Covid AGAIN, as their prior immunity wears off. This will happen just at the time of year when people will be spending much more time indoors because the weather is colder and wetter, without taking any precautions to protect against Covid.
What this means is that the Covid virus will have millions of people to infect again, and the perfect conditions to spread from person to person. A massive new autumn and winter wave of Covid therefore WILL happen, just as the NHS and most scientists have been predicting. The only question is how large it will be, and how damaging it will be.
This winter wave will happen even if we do not see a new Covid-19 variant, because people will become vulnerable again to existing variants, when their protection wears off. A new variant which can get around vaccine or prior immunity will just make things worse.
The NHS is now rolling out an Autumn Booster for Covid to try to refresh people’s immunity against catching Covid and getting seriously ill with Covid. This is to try and reduce the size of the winter wave, to give the NHS a chance of coping with it. But this plan may not work, even if lots of people come forward for the booster.
Getting Ready
The first thing you need to decide whether you want to be a victim of the Winter Wave or not. If you don’t want to be a victim, here are some things to do:
- Get boosted or fully vaccinated and encourage everyone around you to get vaccinated or boosted too
- Wear a protective FFP2 mask when you are in high-risk indoor places like shops, schools, offices and public buildings. Even if the air is rich in Covid virus, you don’t have to breathe it in. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co for reusable certified PPE masks which cost less than a takeaway dinner – see link below.
- If you work, try to arrange working from home if you can over the winter. Encourage your employer to invest now in better ventilation or air filtration. It costs only a few hundred pounds to install HEPA filters or UV air purifiers which destroy the virus, so everyone can breathe clean air. Could you get your own portable unit?
- If you go to public buildings like theatres, cinemas, libraries, day centres, etc, ask them about their air quality. Do they filter or purify the air to keep you, and their own staff, safe? If they don’t, steer clear.
- If you are at school or college, which are super-spreaders of Covid, wearing an FFP2 or N95 mask is essential if you don’t want to be a victim of the Winter Wave.
Things To Expect
When the Winter Wave kicks off, you can expect things like these to happen:
- NHS will be exceptionally busy and possibly overwhelmed. Expect even more cancellations of routine clinics and operations, exceptionally long delays for GP and clinic appointments, and an even more reduced 999 emergency service. Many people will die or suffer disability or illness not necessarily because they have caught Covid, but because Covid is destroying the NHS. Already, 10% of NHS jobs are unfilled.
- Social care services will also be under huge strain and may break down. Expect fewer social workers, an even bigger shortage of carers and PAs, residential and care homes with staffing problems, and many more vulnerable people ‘slipping through the net’.
- Lots of people will be off sick at the same time, and all services will run even more short of staff. Supermarkets, shops, refuse collection, buses, trains, airports and airlines, delivery companies, will all have insufficient staff to keep things going normally. There will be shortages in shops, petrol stations may run low and public transport may be even more unreliable.
- Misinformation and political spin will increase, as some politicians try to blame the situation on anything except Government policy. Covid-deniers on social media will say that lockdown in 2020, or mysterious new illnesses, or llamas, are somehow to blame – anything rather than Covid.
What Not To Expect
BuDS is not expecting the Government to introduce sensible precautions against Covid-19, although we wish they would. Other nations are using sensible measures to keep Covid levels lower without affecting their economies, but this Government will not follow that example. Neither is BuDS expecting any form of winter lockdown or restrictions, even if it becomes obvious that only these radical measures will save lives and prevent chaos.
More Information
To find out more about certified FFP2 and N95 face masks for disabled and clinically vulnerable people, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/face-mask-offers/
Our latest Covid-19 risk assessment for Buckinghamshire: https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/risk-assessments/
All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/
To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
We Are Here To Help!
BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.