The Covid wave in England continues to grow, with infection levels up 11% in the last week. The risk level is hovering just below Very High. If you do not wish to catch Covid, please take precautions now. Please also get your Covid booster if you are eligible, or consider whether you can afford to get one privately.
As of 5 October, around 1 in every 111 people in England were infected, and the risk of encountering an infected person in most indoor places remains High. Unless the indoor air is fresh, or filtered/purified, good quality PPE respiratory masks are needed to protect yourself. If you need any advice about this, please do ask.
Infection Etiquette
If you or someone you have met does have symptoms of Covid, please do the decent, patriotic thing and keep it to yourself. Unless you are absolutely unable to do so, please isolate until your symptoms have been gone for a couple of days. If you can’t isolate, wear a tight-fitting PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/FFP3) whenever you are in contact with other people. Remember, because so few people are eligible for NHS Covid boosters this winter, an uncontrolled Covid wave could do very serious harm to older and clinically vulnerable people.
Covid Causes Persistent Fatigue
This week, we are highlighting the risk of persistent fatigue after a Covid infection, also known as Long Covid. Persistent fatigue is a major problem for very large numbers of people, including people who only had ‘mild’ symptoms of Covid. In studies, around 40% of people reported persistent fatigue more than 30 days after their Covid infection. Over a fifth of people reported persistent fatigue 3 months after their Covid infection, and around 10% report it a year after their infection. 2.5 million people have dropped out of the UK workforce since the pandemic began, and persistent fatigue is the commonest symptom amongst those people.
To put those numbers into perspective, around 500,000 people will have Covid this week, which means that by Bonfire Night (5 November), 200,000 people will still be experiencing persistent fatigue. By Christmas, 100,000 people will still be feeling exhausted and ill. And this is just the total for this week – every week that the Covid wave continues, the number of people who will wake up every day feeling shattered goes up. If you do not want to be one of those people, take precautions against catching Covid now.
Risk Analysis
BuDS strongly recommends that everyone takes precautions against catching Covid. These precautions should be taken in all indoor places, unless you are sure that the space is very well ventilated or has HEPA filtration in place. We continue to not recommend Covid precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 9, potentially 45+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 7, potentially 14+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 3, potentially 5+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person on a single visit, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 2 to 4 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. Remember, however, especially with rising infection levels, you may well be unlucky and meet a Covid-infected person on your first visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). The Covid risk is rising. While statistically the risk remains lower, we encourage a cautious approach to taking risks. Not wearing a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) should be exceptional when the risk is clearly lower, for example in a nearly empty building. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
Covid is not just dangerous for clinically-vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 245th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.