More good news about Covid this week, as infection levels in England fall slightly. For the first time since 2021, we have lowered the risk level to Moderate, as around 1 in every 499 people in England were infected as of 30 November.
Influenza (flu) cases continue to sharply increase, and it is clear that the flu season this year will be as bad as it was last year. Remember, the same precautions we recommend for Covid will keep you safe from flu. It is not too late to get vaccinated against flu, and we strongly recommend that you do so if you haven’t already.
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Risk Analysis
Although the risk of catching Covid is the lowest since 2021, this does not mean that Covid has gone away completely. Over 100,000 people had Covid in England last week, so it is still possible to catch it when out in the community. For this reason, BuDS continues to recommend that everyone takes proportionate precautions against catching Covid.
In the light of the reduced risk, we now recommend that Covid precautions should be taken in all high and medium-high risk indoor places. In medium and lower risk indoor places, most people (who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid) should consider whether Covid precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend Covid precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
Remember, flu levels are still high, and there is a risk of catching flu in indoor places. Influenza is not as contagious as Covid, but the risk of catching it is still high in crowded or unventilated indoor spaces. Precautions against catching Covid will also protect you from catching flu.
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 2, potentially 10+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 2, potentially 3+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially more than 1 | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Most people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax Covid precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. Acutely clinically-vulnerable people may wish to continue precautions. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person, even on multiple visits, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 10 to 20 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). Most people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax Covid precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. Acutely clinically-vulnerable people may wish to continue precautions. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
More Information
This is BuDS’ 252nd Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
To make a donation and help us continue these risk assessments into 2026, use this link: https://www.peoplesfundraising.com/fundraising/buds-covid-information-project-2026
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.