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1 in 99 people in England likely now infected. Keep taking precautions, and get vaccinated. Very High risk of meeting someone with Covid.

Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 20 October 2024

Covid infection levels in England remained high but static last week, with around 1 in 99 people in England now infected with Covid as of 13 October. The risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life remains Very High.

As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 3 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. A typical full single decker bus will have around 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be 2 infected people breathing out virus. If you work in a large, air-conditioned office or warehouse/factory without air purification, there will be around 5 infected people. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if a group of infected people are sharing your train or bus. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.

It is common for Covid waves to rise in steps, so the lack of change in infection levels last week does not mean that a peak has been passed. We are still predicting a rise in infection levels up to Christmas and New Year. The rate of increase will possibly accelerate as new variants like XEC take hold.

We urge everyone who is entitled to a free Covid vaccination to get it immediately. If you are not entitled to a free vaccination, please consider whether paying for the jab would be a good investment (if you can afford it, of course). Remember to wear a close-fitting respiratory mask (FFP2 or FFP3) when you have the jab – doctors’ surgeries and pharmacies are extremely high risk for catching Covid.

We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) data dated 20 October. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 99 people in England with Covid as of 20 October is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.

This is BuDS’ 198th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic. We are planning to mark our 200th risk assessment by launching a small appeal to raise funds for our future Covid work – look out for more information next week.

Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.

BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.

To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.

For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.