Some rare good news about Covid in England, as infection levels fall back to ‘baseline’ levels last seen in early summer 2025. This doesn’t mean Covid has ceased to be a threat, as around 1 in every 296 people in England were still infected as of 16 November. The risk level, however, has fallen to Moderately High.
Influenza (flu) continues to circulate at high levels, but there are signs that the current flu wave may also be about to peak. Remember, while influenza is not as infectious or dangerous as Covid, it is still a nasty virus to catch, and can have long-term health impacts too. The influenza vaccine is much more widely available than the Covid vaccine, and we recommend everyone entitled to a flu vaccine gets one as quickly as possible.
Too Good To Be True?
Our Covid estimates are based on solid NHS data, and we are confident that – unlikely as it seems – the current Covid wave is over. It is difficult to say exactly why this wave has been both smaller and shorter than expected. We know the wave was driven by the new XFG ‘Stratus’ variant evading community immunity, and it may be that community immunity was more resilient than predicted, that XFG was less immune-evasive, or maybe both. Both the public and the NHS should be relieved we have been spared a much more damaging wave.
We cannot rule out a further Covid wave this winter, but there is no sign yet of a new variant ‘waiting in the wings’ to cause it. What is more likely on the current data is that Covid infection levels will start to gently ramp up again as people’s immunity to current variants wanes, and they start to catch Covid again. We will of course continue to report developments every week.
250 Risk Assessments
This week marks BuDS’ 250th Covid Risk Assessment. Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have provided accurate, evidence based information for disabled and clinically vulnerable people about the changing risk from Covid. Around 50-75,000 people read our assessments every week. This work has not been externally funded since 2022, and our risk assessments are produced by a small team of volunteers and professional advisors, most of whom are themselves disabled people.
To mark this anniversary, we are launching a small fundraising campaign to cover the essential costs of our Covid risk assessments in 2026. If you value our work, please consider making a donation if you can.
Risk Analysis
BuDS continues to recommend that everyone takes proportionate precautions against catching Covid. These precautions should be taken in all high, medium-high, and medium risk indoor places. In lower risk indoor places, people who are not acutely clinically vulnerable to Covid may wish to consider whether Covid precautions can be relaxed. We continue to not recommend Covid precautions outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people.
Remember, flu levels are still high, and there is a risk of catching flu in indoor places. Influenza is not as contagious as Covid, but the risk of catching it is still high in crowded or unventilated indoor spaces. Precautions against catching Covid will also protect you from catching flu.
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit/journey this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. Risk on journeys is calculated assuming that people visit several places in one trip, e.g. railway station, train, railway station is assessed as one “journey” | Minimum 3, potentially 17+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 3, potentially 5+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more), smaller supermarkets, smaller offices, individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 2+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats), small shops, infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services), buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person on a single visit, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 6 to 12 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. Remember, however, you could be unlucky and meet a Covid-infected person on your first visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. |
| Low | Outdoors (except when in a dense crowd) | The moving fresh air makes transmission of Covid from one person to another unlikely, except where two people are very close together. | The number of infected people is less relevant because the risk of transmission of Covid from one person to another outdoors is unlikely. | Avoid very close contact (under 1m) with potentially infected people. For complete peace of mind, remain 2m from potentially infected people. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you personally breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
Covid is not just dangerous for clinically vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 250th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, or if you’d like to know more about how we calculate risk, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.