Covid-19 Risk Assessment: Week Ending 3 March 2023

Covid infections in Bucks stayed roughly the same last week, with no sign yet that the current wave has peaked. The Covid risk remains Extremely High, and the number of people in hospital with Covid has jumped up by nearly a third.

People are asking why we still issue Covid risk assessments when so many people have stopped taking notice of Covid. The reality is that over 10,000 people have Covid every week in Bucks, and their health is getting worse all the time. Nearly all doctors now believe that Covid causes serious long-term effects for many people who catch it, even if they are not very ill immediately. Covid is destroying the health of Buckinghamshire, one infection at a time.

Politicians have told you that vaccines protect against Covid, but this simply isn’t true. Vaccines are really important because they stop people dying of Covid, but vaccines don’t stop the other serious effects of Covid or prevent Long Covid (a permanent disabling condition). Vaccines also don’t stop you from catching Covid in the first place.

Because Covid is still such a huge health risk to everyone, whatever their age or medical conditions, we are continuing to advise you to take precautions against catching Covid. These precautions include wearing a FFP2 or N95 filter mask in public places (especially hospitals and GP surgeries), breathing clean air, avoiding crowds and busy places, working from home if you can, and protecting your older and ill relatives and friends.

Get Vaccinated & Get A Protective Mask!

Being fully vaccinated and boosted is your best protection against death or serious illness. You can no longer get a booster (the NHS stopped the programme recently) but adults and teenagers can still get free vaccination if you haven’t had your first three ‘primary’ doses. If this is you, please ask your GP or book a vaccination now. The latest research suggests that having your three primary doses of vaccine reduces your risk of developing Long Covid.

Wearing a protective face mask which filters the virus out of the air you breathe is another of the best ways to protect yourself from Covid. Wearing an FFP2 or N95 filter mask means that the air in your lungs is clean, even if there is lots of Covid in the air around you. BuDS recommends Cambridge Masks Co. There is a link at the end of this article to Cambridge Masks’ website to learn more. If you can’t afford a mask, please contact us and we will see if we can help.

The Risk In Bucks This Week

BuDS uses the most up to date ONS Infection Survey data covering the period to 21 February. This is of course 10 days ago, but it is the latest reliable data available. We have mathematically extrapolated the trend in the ONS data to give an indication of how many people are infected now, rather than 10 days ago.

We estimate that 1 in 43 people in Bucks were infected as of 1 March, which is 12,718 people.

You can see how current numbers compare to the other waves of Covid-19 in Bucks by looking at the graph.

A graph showing positive Covid cases. BuDS/ONS estimated 12,718 cases on 1 March. UKHSA estimated 718 cases on 1 March.

How Likely Are You To Meet An Infected Person?

Your chance of meeting an infected person when you are out and about in Bucks is EXTREMELY HIGH.

If we assume that every infected person is active in their local community, these figures will help you understand the risk of meeting one.

How many infected people in every 1000?^[1] – 23
How many infected people in Aylesbury?^[2] – 1,380
How many infected people in High Wycombe?^[3] – 2,759
How many infected people in Amersham?^[4] – 623
How many infected people in Chesham?^[5] – 614
How many infected people in Buckingham?^[6] – 345
How many infected people in Burnham?^[7] – 261
How many infected people (adults or children) in a large school?^[8] – 34
How many infected people in a busy town centre?^[9] – 223
How many infected people at a large public event?^[10] – 460
How many infected people in a busy shopping centre?^[11] – 23
How many infected people in a busy supermarket?^[12] – 7

How Is The NHS Coping?

The NHS is struggled to cope, and it is likely that these figures underestimate the true number of infected people in hospital, simply because staff have been too busy to do routine testing.

The total number of patients in Bucks hospitals tested and found to be positive for Covid-19 rose significantly this week, by 30.4%. This week is the worst week since October 2022 for people catching Covid in hospital – the number of people who caught Covid-19 in hospital increased by a huge 42.7%.

Buckinghamshire Healthcare Trust, which runs Stoke Mandeville and Wycombe hospitals, is consistently one of the worst Trusts in England for patients catching Covid in hospital – it has been in the bottom 10 for preventing Covid infections inside its buildings for most of the last 12 months.

These figures are for 27 February, the latest available:

Total number of Bucks hospital patients with Covid – 356.

This total includes people admitted with Covid and those who caught it in hospital. It is 30.4% higher than the previous week (273). Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid – see below.

Total number of people admitted with Covid – 47

This total is of people who had Covid on admission to hospital, whether they were admitted because of Covid illness or found to have Covid when admitted for another reason. Not all these people will be seriously ill with Covid. This figure is 19% lower than last week (58).

Estimated total of people in hospital primarily for Covid illness – 142

This figure is 30.4% higher than last week (109).

As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals who are infected with Covid. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

Estimated total of people admitted to hospital primarily for Covid illness – 19

This figure is 19% lower than last week (23).

As of 5 May 2022, the NHS estimate that a minimum of 40% of patients infected with Covid in hospitals in the SE of England are there primarily because of Covid illness. We have applied this percentage to the total number of patients in Bucks hospitals admitted with Covid to give you a rough idea of how many people are being admitted to hospital because of Covid illness. All these people are likely to be seriously ill with Covid.

Hospitals remain a very dangerous place to be when it comes to Covid-19, and it is very important to wear a filter mask when attending hospital or other medical appointments.

You can see how hospitalisation numbers have changed the last 12 months on the graphs below.

Keeping Covid-19 under control is vitally important for the NHS and for everyone. If the number of Covid-19 patients gets too high, or high numbers of NHS staff are off sick or self-isolating, or both, hospitals cannot keep patients safe, and care is threatened for all patients.

Covid-19 Deaths In Bucks

We use death statistics for the last two weeks rather than just the last week, so you get a more accurate figure. According to all of the 3 measures we use, deaths have fallen slightly this week in Bucks.

There are three ways of counting the number of Covid-related deaths in Bucks.

27 February, 12 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 1,593. Because people are increasingly living longer even with severe Covid illness, this is the least accurate total.
Between 13 February and 27 February, 18 people died within 60 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of deaths to 2,044. This total is the most clinically appropriate because of the length of time people now live with severe Covid illness.
Between 3 February and 17 February, 16 people died with Covid as a cause of death as recorded by doctors on their death certificates, bringing the total to 1,660. This is the most reliable total, but the data is always two weeks old.

How Many People Are Vaccinated In Bucks?

For the forty third week running, vaccination has made virtually no progress in Bucks across all age groups. Only 73 vaccine doses were delivered in the week to 28 February. Because the ‘booster’ programme has now closed, all bar two of these doses were people getting their primary (first, second, and third) doses. This number is significantly lower than the 155 doses recorded in the previous week, and shows again the continued decline in vaccination rates in Bucks.

Effectively, vaccination remains at a halt in Bucks.

Here are the latest vaccination figures for 28 February:

Young children (aged 5 to 11) – Only 5,052 children of the 51,645 young children in Bucks have had two doses of a vaccine (9.8%), formerly recommended by the NHS for high protection. 216 children have had 3 doses, and 7,230 young children have had one dose (14.0%). Nearly 9 out of 10 (86.0%) of young children in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated
Secondary-age children (aged 12 to 15) – Only 530 children of the over 31,200 secondary-age children in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (1.7%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Under 14,500 secondary-age children have had two doses (46.3%), and 17,827 secondary-age children have had one dose (57.1%). More than 4 in 10 (42.9%) secondary-age children remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Teenagers (aged 16 to 17) – Only 2,667 of the over 14,500 older teenagers in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (18.3%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just over 9,100 older teenagers have had two doses (62.6%), and less than 11,000 older teenagers have had one dose (73.8%). Over a quarter (26.2%) of older teenagers remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Adults (aged 18 to 70) – Only 262,904 of the over 382,000 adults in Bucks have had three doses of a vaccine (68.8%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 93,500 adults have had four doses (24.5%), all of which are part of the now ended autumn booster programme. Under 319,000 adults have had two doses (83.4%), and less than 328,000 adults have had one dose (85.6%). Over a tenth (14.4%) of adults in Bucks remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19
Older Adults (aged over 70) – 68,880 of the over 80,600 older adults in Bucks have had five doses of a vaccine (85.4%), as recommended by the NHS for high protection. Just under 44,000 older adults have had four doses (53.9%), just over 76,200 older adults have had three doses (94.6%), just over 77,700 older adults have had two doses (96.4%), and just over 78,100 have had one dose (96.9%). Just under 2,500 (3.1%) older adults still remain completely unvaccinated against Covid-19

More Information

If you’d like to know more about the issues below, use the appropriate link.

To see the range available from Cambridge Masks Co: https://cambridgemask.com/

All our Covid-19 articles – https://buds.org.uk/category/our-work/iag-covid-19/

To see our Covid-19 risk levels, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/

We Are Here To Help!

BuDS can help you by answering questions, providing information, helping you find practical support or help in a crisis or being a friendly voice if you’re lonely or isolated. If you’d like any help or support from us, message us through social media, e-mail buds-support@buds.org.uk or leave us a voicemail on 01494 211179. We’ll do our very best to help you.