The ‘Late Summer Wave’ of Covid is rapidly growing, with the number of infected people in England up by nearly a fifth in only one week. All the signs are that England will see an extremely high (above 1 in 50) peak of Covid infections in August. Current infection levels are VERY HIGH, with around 1 in 82 people in England infected with Covid as of 21 July. See below for more on how we calculated this.
The risk of meeting a Covid-infected person in your everyday life remains VERY HIGH. As an example of the current risk of catching Covid, a typical busy supermarket will have around 4 infected people breathing out virus for you to breathe in. In a full single decker bus, there will be 1 infected person breathing out virus. In a busy train carriage, there will be around 2 infected people breathing out virus. Remember, this is based on a statistical analysis and the real risk could be higher, for example if you happen to use a bus that has 4 or 5 infected people on board. This is why we advise you to wear a respiratory filter mask in public places and on public transport. Cloth and surgical masks do not protect you.
This Late Summer Wave of Covid is being driven by new variants of the Covid virus, in particular KP.3.1.1. These new variants are capable of infecting people even if they have had Covid in the last 3 months. This is because the temporary immunity you get from catching Covid probably will not protect you against the new variants now spreading. So, nobody should feel ‘safe’ against catching Covid.
We have based our estimate of current Covid-19 infection levels in England on all the available data, including the Notification of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS) report dated 21 July. We feel that our estimate of roughly 1 in 82 people in England with Covid as of 21 July is a credible assessment of the current risk for the purposes of giving disabled and clinically vulnerable people information to manage their own risk. If you would like to know more about our methodology, please contact us.
You will be told that official published data from the NHS and UKHSA does not suggest we are in a Covid wave. This is grossly misleading. Although the UKHSA Covid data dashboard appears to still be being updated, most data stopped being published at the end of June. Case data (largely the number of people tested in hospital for Covid because they had serious Covid illness) appears to be up to date, but in reality the data has been incomplete since 14 July. This incomplete data is significantly misleading, and suggests that current cases are lower than they really are.
Remember, Covid is airborne: the virus spreads mainly through the air. An infected person in an unventilated place creates a large invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke, ready for you to breathe in. Because the NHS has not improved the ventilation in its buildings, hospitals and GP practices are extremely dangerous places to catch Covid. NHS staff are now required to work even if they have Covid and there are no Covid precautions in place at most NHS buildings. Do avoid hospitals and GP practices unless your visit is essential and wear a tight-fitted filter mask (FFP2 or FFP3) or respirator all the time if you have to go there.
BuDS strongly recommends that disabled and clinically vulnerable people avoid public transport and indoor spaces unless they are wearing a filter mask (FFP2/3) or respirator. For more advice on how to avoid catching Covid, use this link.
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link.
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.