Covid infection levels in England have once again risen, but remain at historically lower levels. Around 1 in every 249 people in England were infected in the week to 10 August, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.
Covid infection levels in England, measured by multiple data sources, have remained at historically lower levels since January 2025. We have not yet seen the huge waves of infection that we saw in 2024 and 2023. However, disregarding weekly fluctuations, Covid infection levels in England are very slowly rising, and this week’s infection level is the highest since January.
Analysis
Community immunity is the biggest factor in whether or not England experiences a Covid wave. Most people gain partial immunity to a Covid infection in the weeks and months following a Covid infection – the so-called ‘vaccination by contagion’ model. Those who qualify for a Covid booster vaccine gain longer lasting immunity from that vaccination.
In 2023 and 2024, competitive new variants of Covid arrived which were able to disregard this partial immunity, and so we saw millions of people catching Covid over a short period. What we are seeing in 2025 (so far) is that current new variants are unable to make headway against widespread community immunity. Every week, ‘only’ around 200,000 people do catch Covid, but not more. This level of newly infected people is sufficient to replace the number of people whose infection has ended, but not to increase the overall number of infected people. This process of ‘weekly replacement’ explains the long period of relatively stable infection levels we have seen in England in 2025.
Looking forward to the autumn and winter of 2025, people will gather and live more indoors, with less fresh air ventilation. This increases the opportunity for Covid (and other airborne viruses) to spread between people. Community immunity levels will also continue to wane. Our tentative prediction for Covid levels in England is therefore that we will soon start to see a gradual increase in levels to perhaps double what we have now, i.e. 1 in 150 or so. This would be “High Risk”, and we would revise our advice around masking and other precautions accordingly. The arrival of a competitive new variant would change the situation, but there is currently no sign of that happening in England.
For the moment, historically lower Covid infection levels continue in England. We will continue to issue weekly updates, and let you know as soon as there is any sign (in any of the data) of a sustained rise which increases the risk.
As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 249 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.
Risk Levels and Precautions
| Risk | Places | Risk factors | Likely number of infected people on a single visit this week | Risk mitigations (things you can do to protect yourself) |
| High | Buses Trains Taxis Transit systems like the London Underground Hospitals GP practices Dentists Vaccination clinics Pharmacies Schools, universities and colleges | Used by very large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 4-5, potentially 20+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium-high | Bars and clubs Large supermarkets Indoor shopping centres Large office buildings Most cinemas and theatres. | Used by large numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 3, potentially 6+ | Minimise visits. Wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). |
| Medium | Medium-sized restaurants (200 seats or more) Smaller supermarkets Smaller offices Individual larger shops | Used by medium numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Typically poorly ventilated. | Minimum 1, potentially 3+ | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). If you are clinically vulnerable or highly Covid cautious, wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Other users may feel it is safe enough for them to relax some precautions. |
| Lower | Small cafes (around 25 seats) Small shops Infrequently used buildings e.g. churches (outside of services) Buildings which, at the time of visit, have very few people inside them | Used by small numbers of people, who are not taking precautions. Can be poorly ventilated. | You are statistically unlikely to encounter an infected person on a single visit, although this risk cannot be excluded. After 5 to 10 visits, statistically you are likely to encounter one infected person over all of those visits. Remember, however, you might be unlucky and meet a Covid-infected person on your first visit. | Minimise visits. Maximise fresh air ventilation (open windows if possible, etc). If you are acutely clinically vulnerable or highly Covid cautious, wear a PPE respiratory mask (FFP2/3 rated) on every visit. Other users may feel it is safe enough for them to relax some precautions. |
| Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated indoor place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. The virus cloud can be dispersed and made less harmful, or harmless, using fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door. Fresh air is the enemy of Covid and the friend of Covid-cautious people. Another way to deal with an indoor cloud of Covid is to use a HEPA filter. These filters suck in the air, remove the viruses, and blow out virus-free clean air. HEPA filters are essential when an indoor space cannot be ventilated with fresh air, e.g. no (or little) opening windows. PPE respiratory masks filter viruses out of the air you breathe, if they are fitted and used correctly. PPE masks are the last line of defence against airborne viruses. As we explain in the table above, Covid-cautious people can use one or a combination of these precautions to help make indoor spaces safer for them. | ||||
Remember too that Covid is not just dangerous for clinically-vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
More Information
This is BuDS’ 238th Covid risk assessment since the beginning of the pandemic, and we are still the only organisation publishing free risk data for disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We will update you on the situation again next week.
If you’d like to get our weekly Covid risk assessments direct to your email inbox, completely free of charge, you can subscribe here: https://budscovidinfo.substack.com/
To understand more about our Covid risk levels and what they mean, use this link: https://buds.org.uk/covid-19-risk-levels-in-bucks/
For more Covid information and help, please contact BuDS and we will be happy to help.