Articles in Risk Assessments

Covid infection levels in England have again risen sharply over the last week, as have other Covid measures. Infection levels are around a fifth higher, and the overall risk level remains High. It is clear that the next Covid wave is upon us, and we urge everyone take precautions against catching this dangerous virus. Now is also the time to get your Covid boosters (if available to you) as quickly as possible.

As of 21 September, around 1 in every 152 people in England were infected. This means that the risk of encountering an infected person in most indoor places is now High. Unless the indoor air is fresh, or filtered/purified, good quality PPE respiratory masks are needed to protect yourself. If you need any advice about this, please do ask.

Covid infection levels in England have risen sharply over the last 2 weeks, as have other Covid measures. The overall risk level has risen from moderately high to High. It is clear that the next Covid wave is building fast, and we urge everyone to resume or continue precautions against catching this dangerous virus. Now is also the time to get your Covid boosters (if available to you) as quickly as possible.

After their recent big jump, Covid infection levels in England have again remained roughly static this week. As of 31 August, around 1 in every 224 people in England were infected. A further increase is only a matter of time, and we shall continue to closely monitor the situation. As the overall trend in infection levels is still upwards, we continue to advise people to resume strict precautions.

Covid infection levels in England, which jumped by nearly a fifth the week before last, have remained at roughly the same level this week. We continue to advise people to start resuming strict precautions if they do not wish to catch Covid, as we believe the trend in infection levels is still upwards.

The long period of historically lower Covid infection levels in England has come to an end. Covid infection levels in England have jumped nearly a fifth in the last week, and the overall Covid risk is just below High. Now is the time for people to start resuming strict precautions if they do not wish to catch Covid.

Covid infection levels in England have once again risen, but remain at historically lower levels. Around 1 in every 249 people in England were infected in the week to 10 August, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

Covid infection levels in England, measured by multiple data sources, have remained at historically lower levels since January 2025. We have not yet seen the huge waves of infection that we saw in 2024 and 2023. However, disregarding weekly fluctuations, Covid infection levels in England are very slowly rising, and this week’s infection level is the highest since January.

Covid infection levels in England remain at historically lower levels, despite a slight rise in the last 2 weeks. Around 1 in every 275 people in England were infected in the week to 20 July, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

There is still no sign that any of the new variants circulating in England have become sufficiently competitive to trigger a new wave of Covid. While a significant number of people in England have Covid in any particular week (around 210,000 last week), it appears that newer variants are simply replacing older variants without much increase in the overall total. This churn of variants explains why weekly totals sometimes go up or down within the same historically lower range.

Covid infection levels in England have reduced to nearly the lowest level seen this year. Around 1 in every 306 people in England were infected in the week to 6 July, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

We recognise that many people feel this situation is “too good to be true”. However, all data sources support the conclusion that Covid infection levels in England remain at historically lower levels, and we are confident in the advice we are giving to disabled and clinically vulnerable people. We closely monitor the situation, and we will be the first to sound the alarm if infection levels start to rise.

Covid infection levels in England have slightly declined in the last week, and remain at historically lower levels. Around 1 in every 261 people in England were infected in the week to 29 June, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

There has not been a Covid wave in England since the beginning of 2025. This is unprecedented since the start of the pandemic. However, Covid has not gone away, and around 220,000 people have Covid every week. So far, no competitive new variant of Covid has emerged to drive a very large wave of infections, and there does not appear to be such a new variant on the immediate horizon. While Covid levels cannot be expected to remain at these historically lower levels forever, there is no sign yet of a significant new wave.

Covid infection levels are continuing to slowly rise but, for the moment, still remain at historically lower levels. Around 1 in every 239 people in England were infected in the week to 22 June, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.

Once again, there is no evidence in any data that there is a current Covid wave in England. The long-term trend is of a very gradual increase in infection levels. If this trend continues, infection levels will reach the same level as last summer (when we were in the trough between two waves) by August. For the moment, therefore, we are leaving our risk advice unchanged.